Afterpage

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Daniel Kahneman

For people who make decisions for a living, or want to understand why smart people misjudge risk, time, and evidence. It's long and dense, so this week focuses on the parts you can use.

A week with this book

A short summary today, then one small action a day for six days. Free for your first book.

Thinking, Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman

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Day 1

The ideas the week uses

Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won the Nobel prize in economics, describes two modes of thinking: one fast and automatic, one slow and effortful. Most errors come from trusting the fast mode when the slow one was needed.

  1. System 1 and System 2. System 1 is quick, intuitive, and always on. System 2 is deliberate and lazy, and often just endorses what System 1 suggests. Knowing which one is answering is the first defense.
  2. What you see is all there is. The fast mind builds a confident story from whatever information is in front of it and ignores what's missing. Kahneman's shorthand for this is WYSIATI.
  3. Anchors pull estimates. Any number you see before making an estimate, even an irrelevant one, tends to drag your answer toward it. Negotiators and marketers use this deliberately.
  4. Losses loom larger than gains. Losing something hurts more than gaining the same thing feels good. This loss aversion makes us cling to the status quo and take odd risks to avoid a sure loss.
  5. Take the outside view. Plans are usually too optimistic because we focus on our own case. Kahneman recommends starting from how long and how well similar projects went for others, then adjusting.

Where it overreachesMany of the priming studies in chapter 4 have not held up, and in 2017 Kahneman said publicly that he had placed too much faith in small, underpowered studies. The work on heuristics and loss aversion is on firmer ground.

Days 2 to 7

How to apply Thinking, Fast and Slow

10 to 20 minutes each, with a two-minute version for a bad day.

Printable week card (one page)

  1. 2Catch three fast answersToday, write down three moments when you answered or judged something instantly, and note whether slow thinking would have changed it.
  2. 3List what's missingPick one decision you're facing and write down what you don't know about it before you decide.
  3. 4Make your own anchor firstBefore your next estimate, price check, or negotiation, write down your own number before you see anyone else's.
  4. 5Reframe one lossFind one choice where fear of losing something is holding you back, and rewrite it in terms of gains and the cost of doing nothing.
  5. 6Run a premortemTake one plan you're working on, imagine it's a year from now and it has failed, and write the reasons why in ten minutes.
  6. 7Use the outside viewFor one project you're estimating, find out how long or how well similar projects went, and adjust your plan toward that.

Sample

Day 3, in full

This is what lands in your inbox that morning.

AfterpageDay 3 of 7 · Action

List what's missing

Today’s action · 10 to 20 minutes

Pick one decision you're facing and write down what you don't know about it before you decide.

How

Write the decision at the top. Below, list the evidence you have. Then list at least three things you'd want to know but don't. Ask: is the story I'm telling based only on what happens to be in front of me?

Why this one

Kahneman's WYSIATI idea is that the mind is confident about stories built from little information. Naming the gaps makes overconfidence visible.

If today is a bad day

Write one decision and two questions you can't yet answer about it.

In short

Questions about this book

Who is Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman for?

For people who make decisions for a living, or want to understand why smart people misjudge risk, time, and evidence. It's long and dense, so this week focuses on the parts you can use.

What are the main ideas in Thinking, Fast and Slow?

Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won the Nobel prize in economics, describes two modes of thinking: one fast and automatic, one slow and effortful. Most errors come from trusting the fast mode when the slow one was needed. System 1 and System 2; What you see is all there is; Anchors pull estimates; Losses loom larger than gains; Take the outside view.

What do you do in the Afterpage week for Thinking, Fast and Slow?

Day 1 is a short summary. Then one action a day, each 10 to 20 minutes: Catch three fast answers; List what's missing; Make your own anchor first; Reframe one loss; Run a premortem; Use the outside view. Day 7 also has a recap.

Where does Thinking, Fast and Slow overreach?

Many of the priming studies in chapter 4 have not held up, and in 2017 Kahneman said publicly that he had placed too much faith in small, underpowered studies. The work on heuristics and loss aversion is on firmer ground.

What is the first action in the Thinking, Fast and Slow week?

Catch three fast answers. Today, write down three moments when you answered or judged something instantly, and note whether slow thinking would have changed it. If you only have two minutes: Write down one snap judgment you made today and one fact that might change it.

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